Irish Unification Plebiscite Must Not Become 'A Repeat of Brexit', Analysts Caution

A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."