Fans of the Magpies are more and more regarding their manager's side as an inconsistent companion. At their brilliant best, they can be the undisputed entertainers, producing high-intensity performances. Yet, on other occasions, previously reliable individuals like Sandro Tonali and others utterly do not show up.
Compounding this issue is a second-half approach riddled with a pronounced element of disorganization. Ahead of their holiday fixture to Manchester United, the numbers tell a troubling picture: they have squandered thirteen precious top-flight points from leading situations this season and are yet to keep a clean sheet in ten straight games in every tournament. Securing victory at their famous stadium would constitute only their second-ever league success on the road this season.
In contrast, defeat has only come on one occasion in their most recent 6 Premier League encounters, and although sitting in a modest 11th spot, they are a mere 6 marks off the highly-prized Champions League places. Factor in an impending two-part League Cup semi-final against Manchester City and a strong chance of moving on to the Champions League last 16, and it becomes simpler to understand the gaffer's guarded hope.
“It's not only about difficulties,” remarked the team's boss. “We have strengths also. I am firmly positive right now. I realize everybody else may hold a different take, but I feel we are making progress.”
The puzzle remains: can this group match – or perhaps exceed – the achievements of last season's Wembley triumph and fifth-place finish? Managing a hectic calendar complicates.
The resulting fatigue may account for the inability to sustain a brilliant opening 45-minute performance against their London rivals, ultimately letting slip a two-goal lead to tie the game. Similarly, it could be the culprit for a poor display in a painful loss to local rivals the Black Cats, where the side appeared off the pace just a short time after a tough European excursion.
While on-field instruction is undoubtedly Howe's forte, the relentless schedule of two games a week matches has severely reduced valuable coaching time. This hinders the squad's tactical adaptation to operating with new striker their number nine up front, rather than the departed their former star. Although extremely gifted, Woltemade lacks the same blistering breakaway pace or ferocious pressing.
In fact, the team's signature pressing game has at times failed. Fitness issues to crucial engine the Brazilian midfielder have exacerbated matters, while big-money signings Anthony Elanga and Jacob Ramsey have struggled adapting after their big-money moves.
If a move to a three-man defense could theoretically help the cause, a worsening defensive injury crisis makes that unlikely. Key full-backs will be absent for the upcoming key fixtures, further testing the team's resources.
When playing at their energetic peak, they seem virtually unstoppable. The problem is maintaining that fervor for the entire 90 minutes. The go-to alternative approach of dropping deep into a passive counter-attacking shape has sometimes been counterproductive.
“That match became anarchic at two-all,” said the coach. “However we were going for the victory. Our mentality is to always go out to win.”
What seems called for is a pragmatic solution – involving better possession retention, a midfield adept of dictating the pace, and a sensible willingness to sometimes accept a point. However, a ambition to challenge on all competitions is stretching thin squad resources to their limit.
It may sound heretical to some, but a more selective strategy in the domestic cups earlier could have alleviated the present fixture congestion. With critical Champions League and Premier League games on the horizon, the imperative to strategically choose focus areas is becoming increasingly apparent.
Eddie Howe recognized the size of the task ahead. “When you're at this club, the pressures are enormous. Each game is critical. There is progress to be made in the league. We are in the Carabao Cup semi-finals, we aim to progress in the Europe and do well in the FA Cup.
“The direction is in the correct path, but we have a great deal of improvement to do to transform into the regularly successful team we want to be. Our capacity to string together winning runs has deserted us this season.
“The task is to hit those levels we know we're capable of. The internal belief is that the self-belief to achieve it is coming back. But now we have to demonstrate it. It ain't all doom and gloom in this moment, but the next few weeks will shape a lot.”
Elena is a freelance writer and mindfulness coach who loves exploring the power of positive thinking.